Revisiting our “sociological forecast”; we noted earlier that the relationship between education attainment and Democratic vote share had become substantially tighter with each successive presidential election, and conjectured that the fit would become tighter still in 2024. It did, although only slightly. The proportion of variance explained by percent with bachelor's degrees crept up from 58% to 61% (compared to just 19% in 2000, and a negligible 5% in 1992). Particularly telling are the shifts of the two Virginias– Virginia versus West Virginia. West Virginia, with the lowest fraction of adults with BAs, was about 10 points more Democratic than Virginia (one of the more educated states in the country) in 1992. In 2024, it was 24 points less Democratic than Virginia, a remarkable 34 point shift.

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