2024 is the first time since 1892 that an incumbent President is facing a predecessor. This yields a potentially distinct dynamic. Elections may be viewed in significant part as an act of assessment of the incumbent, per Reagan’s famous query: are you better off than you were four years ago?1 The choice confronting the American voter in 2024 is, in a sense, a comparative assessment of two presidencies, that of Biden and that of Trump. CHIP50 has been tracking the approval of Biden and Trump for the last two years.

KEY FINDINGS

● Approval of both Biden and Trump has been low and fairly stable for the entire period, with more people disapproving than approving of both for the last two years.

● Approval of Trump has been higher than approval of Biden for the entire period. Disapproval of both was about the same in June 2022. However, Biden’s disapproval has slightly increased, while Trump’s disapproval has gradually declined during this time, yielding a substantially lower disapproval rate for Trump currently (43%) than for Biden (52%).

● The largest shifts towards Trump and away from Biden in approval have been in the younger cohorts. For example, for the 18 to 24-year-old cohort, the percentage of people disapproving of Biden has jumped from 40% in June 2022 to 57% now, while the disapproval of Trump has dropped from 55% to 42%.

● The shift in approval of Biden and Trump has been matched by a substantial shift in partisanship towards Republicans in the youngest cohort. In June 2022, Democrats had a 46% to 21% advantage in partisan identity; this has dropped to a 38% to 32% margin.

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